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PERT method with Monte Carlo Simulation, and the Most Probable Critical Path
Last modified: 2014-01-31
Abstract
In this paper we use first the Monte Carlo simulation for PERT, in order to estimate the completion time of a project as the expectation of the simulated times, instead of solving a CPM problem using the expectations.
In the same way, we will estimate the variances. Using the conditional probabilities, we will find the most probable critical path, and, conditioned by non-critical activity, the expectation and the variance of the time margin.
For simulation we use both pre-defined distributions and bootstrap.
In the same way, we will estimate the variances. Using the conditional probabilities, we will find the most probable critical path, and, conditioned by non-critical activity, the expectation and the variance of the time margin.
For simulation we use both pre-defined distributions and bootstrap.
Keywords
Critical path, PERT, CPM, time margins, bootstrap